2012/02/22

US challenges (summary)

 The European Centre for International Political Economy has recently released a paper about China's challenges. I disagree with most of its content, and even more with what is not mentioned about US when the author is comparing both countries. I then noticed that little changes like swaping China with US in the text, adding new links, will reveal much of the other side of the story. Here is the resulting new text.


SUMMARY :
The global economic crisis has changed the perception that many countries shared on US. It is no longer viewed as a financial paymaster, but rather an unruly and disruptive potential pupil. Hence the aim of this paper is to identify and describe the challenges that US is facing in its new role. This paper argues that American developments in all three areas are imposing increasing strains on the country’s political system and institutions and demand new approaches both inside and outside the country. The future for the country is still uncertain due to many vulnerabilities in economic, domestic and foreign policy.

Economists forecast that China’s GDP is to exceed that of the US within a decade or two. Although these predictions may get little attention among investors, it is also worth remembering that they are based on simple extrapolations of the past. Yet, challenges such as the confirmed obsolescence of growth model, the growing pressure of unemployment, and the lack of diversification lie ahead for US. These challenges need to be faced by a new government and policy that will balance the fiscal situation and put US back on track for fast economic growth. Besides, domestic policies face the challenge of rapid escalation of social unrest among US’s population. The increasing number of ‘mass incidents’ (and Occupy Movement) across US, the huge number of people who have access to the Internet and the free exchange of information via ‘micro-blogs’ and tweeting networks, on which 240 million American netizens (as Internet users are known) express their grievances represent a threat to the existing system. Although the traditional bi-Party still commands big respect among richer citizens the level of corruption is alarming and has started to bother younger and poorer generations. And yet, the rulers in US are still a long way from formulating a coherent response to the demands of an increasingly impatient public.

As is the case for its domestic policy, US’s foreign relations are rooted in one fundamental imperative: keeping its regime in power. The government is ready to do whatever is necessary to maintain bloodless growth by keeping financial markets under perfusion, securing access to energy and natural resources worldwide and preventing the economy from being blown off course by external shock. Since Washington has few military allies its international influence is exercised largely through the medium of money and the language of brute force. However, the huge dependency on the global economy will sooner or later become too important for US to remain on the diplomatic sidelines.

There is growing evidence of broadbased popular demand for democracy (Wikileaks, Anonymous, growing debate to end bi-partism or to reform the US constitution), and the pressure for change is increasing. The government’s legitimacy – based on performance – is coming under strain from several directions and these challenges, which are both economic and political, need to be addressed. However, US’s bi-Party system has not yet formulated a clear, effective response strategy. For the rest of the world, the only realistic option is to continue trying to engage US pragmatically but without conceding on essential principles : the usual rules from the XXth century are broken, the dollar cannot remain the global trade currency, whatever the US’s military dominance currently. We are entering a new era, a post-US dollar world, and to remain peg with the dollar will doom your own currency as well.

2012/02/05

Global supply and demand trend to its lowest since 27 years (Baltic Dry Index)

 We are following the Baltic Dry Index since 2008. This composite index gives insight in global supply and demand trends. The small picture to the left is a 1 year chart updated weekly.
Financial News has recently published a report about its trend since 1 year.

But the situation is even worse : the Baltic Dry Index has reached this week its lowest since 1985 (the year this index was first published) at 647 points, even lower than the previous low at 663 points in december 2008, or in december 2001.

(clic to enlarge the picture)

Handy Shipping Guide has published this week an in-depth article about this multi-decades record low as well as Bloomberg (when the index was at 662 points, its lowest since 1986 - now the index has reached even lower to 647), and businessweek.

2012/01/30

THE FIRST COMPOSITE DEBT RATING OF EUROLAND AND 150 COUNTRIES

Fitch rating agency has downgraded several europeans countries last friday. 
But what is the consequence on the eurozone block of countries ? 
And how to put theses ratings into perspective, how do they compare from each other ?
These are the goals of the new Conscience Sociale's Transparent Composite Rating. We have taken the ratings of the 4 major rating agencies in the world, determined a very  simple numeric value from "AAx"-style grade, and calculated their mean for each country.
And we have also taken the opportunity to calculate the rating of Euroland block as a whole, for the first time.
Using the spreadsheet link, you will be able to  to sort data the way you prefer simply by clicking above on column id [A-L then Sort sheet...] (do not click on column labels).

We expect from this new rating to allow much more transparent comparisons between countries for everybody, and also to demonstrate that we are much stronger all eurozone countries when we are considered all together. This is for sure the sense of the current european history,  but it must also be understood by the largest number of people in 2012, in this year of presidential election.

2012/01/07

Conscience du devenir : la crise écologique expliquée à ma fille

Mon aînée est en 6ème. Elle n'a jamais lu mes articles. Je ne lui en parlais pas parce que ce sont des sujets très difficiles à aborder avec des enfants. Il se trouve que sa leçon de géographie que je lui fais réviser cet après-midi commence exactement par ces mots :
Aujourd'hui plus de 50% de la population mondiale vit en ville. Le taux d'urbanisation continue d'augmenter.

 S'ensuit un court dialogue :
- Est-ce que tu sais depuis quand le taux d'urbanisation augmente ?
- Depuis que l'homme construit des villes, en Mésopotamie.
- Tu sais combien il y a d'humains sur la planète ?
- 7 milliards... Dis, c'est grave ? Ça veut dire que tout va exploser ? Qu'on va tous mourir parce qu'il y a trop de personnes ? Tout le monde sait qu'il n'y a bientôt plus de pétrole.
- Non ça ne se passe pas comme ça. Ça n'explose pas. Mais si on ne change rien du tout à notre façon de vivre, il y a des crises très graves, des maladies et la population diminue brutalement, par paliers successifs pendant 200 ans environ.
- Alors on va tous mourir ?
- Chacun doit mourir un jour, mais on mourra de ce problème seulement si on ne fait rien, si on ne change rien. Parce qu'on sait ce qu'il faudrait faire, le problème c'est de le faire collectivement, de changer.
- Mais personne ne fait rien ! Sauf toi qui fait des économies d'énergie...
- Je ne suis pas tout seul... et ça n'est pas seulement une question de pétrole. Tu sais j'écris des articles pour expliquer cela, qui sont lus par 30000 personnes au moins. C'est comme la moitié de la ville. 
- 30 000 comparés à 7 milliards... (un profond air triste passe sur son visage)
- Le monde ne change pas en un jour tu sais. Mais le monde change constamment... et tout changement commence au départ par une personne, une seule. L'important c'est de commencer, qu'il y en ait au moins une, et d'en parler aux autres. Et puis comme je te l'ai dit, je ne suis pas tout seul.

*
(un peu plus tard) 
- Dis-moi, est-ce que tu sais pourquoi je travaille autant sur mes articles ? Pourquoi j'essaie de faire quelque chose ?
- Non ?
- Parce qu'il y a plusieurs années, quand j'ai compris ce qui se passait, j'ai pensé qu'un jour tu me poserais exactement la question que tu m'as posée. Et je me suis dit que je ne pourrai jamais te regarder en face comme maintenant et te dire que je savais ce qui se passait et que je n'ai rien fait... ou bien me défiler lâchement en disant qu'on ne pouvait rien faire, pour toi, tes futurs enfants et les autres gens de ton âge, avec la fausse excuse que soi-disant "c'est très compliqué, tu sais". 


Et vous, qu'allez vous dire à votre enfant le jour où il vous posera la même question ?

*

L'année dernière j'ai croisé un monsieur de 65 ans environ, que je ne connaissais pas, avec qui j'ai parlé brièvement de cette crise écologique. Lui m'a répondu tranquillement et avec un sourire satisfait que c'est un problème qu'il faut laisser aux générations suivantes, qu'elles trouveraient bien une solution puisqu'elles l'avait toujours fait. Il ignorait bien sûr tout de ce qu'est une crise écologique, et ne voulait surtout pas savoir que la solution ne pouvait être qu'inter-générationnelle.
Hélas, il y a fort à parier que sa position soit très répandue parmi sa génération. Je me suis dit que je ne lutterai pas davantage pour préserver le montant de sa retraite. Son abandon flagrant des générations suivantes est une défaillance de sa propre responsabilité inter-générationnelle.
Il s'en faut de peu pour qu'elle soit considérée comme une trahison par les générations montantes.

2012/01/06

US Treasury foreign holdings : new historical record low since 2011

 Boum.

The US Treasury Securities Held in Custody for Foreign Official & Intl Accounts index has reached a new record low : 2,673,567 on 01/04/12, and the fall is going on : 2,668,819 on 01/11/12.

(image updated weekly)

See my previous article to understand why this index  of major importance has to be followed.

The peak of US Treasury foreign official holdings in Custody has been reached end of August 2011.