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After the UK's exit, Hungary's turn to the East once again exposes how liberal fanaticism is tearing the EU apart.
By Glenn Diesen, Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, 09/23/2022
The
meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Uzbekistan
has prompted a geo-economic earthquake, as Eurasian giants such as
China, India, Russia, Pakistan and Iran are integrating their economies
to new levels.
Meanwhile, Turkey wants to be the first NATO country to join the group.
The
aftershocks of the meeting are also being felt in Europe. More
specifically, as I sit here at the Budapest Economic Forum, organised by
the Central Bank of Hungary, I can feel the Samarkand Spirit of the
SCO, as a Eurasian future is being charted.
The collapse of the international economic system
Liberal
international economic systems tend to form when there is a
concentration of economic power under a strong leader. With an immense
concentration of fiscal heft, the collective West was able to act as a
“benign hegemon” that could deliver public goods and create trust in a
stable international economic order. This was the European Union that
Hungary integrated into in the 1990s when the US was the sole superpower
and the EU was considered a locomotive for economic and social
prosperity across the continent.
However,
three decades later the world is a very different place. The EU’s
relative share of the global economy continues its steady decline as
industrial competitiveness deteriorates, debt reaches unsustainable
heights, and the future of the euro looks grim. In the US, the economic
picture and issues with political stability also give cause for
concern.
Brussels is
also incapable of facilitating wider cooperation. The bloc was never
able to accommodate Russia, the largest state on the continent, causing a
revival of Cold War dynamics. The British demand for preserving the
political sovereignty of national parliaments could not be accommodated,
and Britain thus left the EU. It now appears there is also no room in
the European tent for the conservative aspirations of Hungary and
Poland. As the bloc threatens to suspend billions in funds to Hungary,
it becomes more difficult to preserve political independence.
When
an economic hegemon is in relative decline, the international economic
system begins to fragment. To defend their position in the international
system, the US and EU use economic coercion against both allies and
adversaries. The West disrupts the supply chains of rival powers such as
China and Russia to prevent their rise, while friends and allies such
as India, Turkey and Hungary are also punished for failing to display
geoeconomic loyalty. Subsequently, the unipolar era is over. The West is
no longer capable of acting as a benign hegemon by providing public
goods or administrating an international economic system based on
trust.
Eurasia rising
The
international economic system is fragmenting as economic dependencies
formed over the past decades are weaponised. A multitude of problems
ranging from disruptive technologies, war and environmental degradation
threaten the world, yet the necessary cooperation is faltering. It is
evident that the unipolar order is already over, and a multipolar order
is emerging in its place to revive economic connectivity and restore
stability.
This is
facilitated by the Greater Eurasian partnership, which entails the
development of a new multipolar geoeconomic ecosystem. The countries on
the Eurasian super-continent are developing connectivity between their
technological hubs and financial hubs, while connecting physically with
huge infrastructure projects to form new transportation corridors.
Budapest’s
objective is to become a key node in the new Eurasian geoeconomic
ecosystem and to revive economic connectivity in a multipolar format.
Hungary was the first country in Central and Eastern Europe to sign a
currency swap agreement with China, and the first in Europe to join
China’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Not
only is Budapest connecting itself closer to the growth engine of Asia,
but it is also setting itself up as a bridge between the East and West.
Hungary
is also resisting further sanctions on Russia to maintain access to
energy resources. Simply put, Eurasia is reviving globalisation.
A conservative path
Hungary’s
Eurasian path is also consistent with its conservative aspirations.
After decades of communism and the development of Marxist Man, Hungary
naturally seeks to restore the role of national culture, the Church and
traditional values in its national consciousness.
As
new technologies and rampant market forces cause disruptions, it is
necessary to balance change with continuity. Conservatism therefore
anchors stability in the eternal as the focus on family, faith and
traditions connect the past with the future, to prepare society for
disruptions.
Yet,
liberalism in the collective West is not especially tolerant of
conservative values. While the liberal nation-state was previously a
vehicle for success, liberalism has begun decoupling itself from the
nation-state over the past years. Liberal Man is rapidly liberating
himself from his own past through multiculturalism, radical secularism, a
departure from recognising the family as the main institution of a
stable society, and an aversion to traditional values.
In
contrast, cooperation in a multipolar Eurasia does not entail exporting
a political system or conformity around “values”. The various
civilisations in the Eurasian house pursue economic and cultural
connectivity, whilst preserving their respective cultural
distinctiveness. As a conservative country, it paradoxically becomes
easier for Hungary to preserve its European distinctiveness in the
multipolar Eurasian format.
Hopefully,
Hungary will show the way for the rest of Europe in terms of
transitioning from the confrontational unipolar order to a cooperative
multipolar format – as the western peninsula of Greater Eurasia.
