2022/09/24

As Western hegemony comes to an end, the EU bloc may eventually be forced to redefine itself as the western peninsula of Greater Eurasia



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After the UK's exit, Hungary's turn to the East once again exposes how liberal fanaticism is tearing the EU apart.

By Glenn Diesen, Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, 09/23/2022

The meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Uzbekistan has prompted a geo-economic earthquake, as Eurasian giants such as China, India, Russia, Pakistan and Iran are integrating their economies to new levels.

Meanwhile, Turkey wants to be the first NATO country to join the group.

The aftershocks of the meeting are also being felt in Europe. More specifically, as I sit here at the Budapest Economic Forum, organised by the Central Bank of Hungary, I can feel the Samarkand Spirit of the SCO, as a Eurasian future is being charted. 

The collapse of the international economic system
Liberal international economic systems tend to form when there is a concentration of economic power under a strong leader. With an immense concentration of fiscal heft, the collective West was able to act as a “benign hegemon” that could deliver public goods and create trust in a stable international economic order. This was the European Union that Hungary integrated into in the 1990s when the US was the sole superpower and the EU was considered a locomotive for economic and social prosperity across the continent. 

However, three decades later the world is a very different place. The EU’s relative share of the global economy continues its steady decline as industrial competitiveness deteriorates, debt reaches unsustainable heights, and the future of the euro looks grim. In the US, the economic picture and issues with political stability also give cause for concern. 

Brussels is also incapable of facilitating wider cooperation. The bloc was never able to accommodate Russia, the largest state on the continent, causing a revival of Cold War dynamics. The British demand for preserving the political sovereignty of national parliaments could not be accommodated, and Britain thus left the EU. It now appears there is also no room in the European tent for the conservative aspirations of Hungary and Poland. As the bloc threatens to suspend billions in funds to Hungary, it becomes more difficult to preserve political independence. 

When an economic hegemon is in relative decline, the international economic system begins to fragment. To defend their position in the international system, the US and EU use economic coercion against both allies and adversaries. The West disrupts the supply chains of rival powers such as China and Russia to prevent their rise, while friends and allies such as India, Turkey and Hungary are also punished for failing to display geoeconomic loyalty. Subsequently, the unipolar era is over. The West is no longer capable of acting as a benign hegemon by providing public goods or administrating an international economic system based on trust. 

Eurasia rising
The international economic system is fragmenting as economic dependencies formed over the past decades are weaponised. A multitude of problems ranging from disruptive technologies, war and environmental degradation threaten the world, yet the necessary cooperation is faltering. It is evident that the unipolar order is already over, and a multipolar order is emerging in its place to revive economic connectivity and restore stability. 

This is facilitated by the Greater Eurasian partnership, which entails the development of a new multipolar geoeconomic ecosystem. The countries on the Eurasian super-continent are developing connectivity between their technological hubs and financial hubs, while connecting physically with huge infrastructure projects to form new transportation corridors.

Budapest’s objective is to become a key node in the new Eurasian geoeconomic ecosystem and to revive economic connectivity in a multipolar format. Hungary was the first country in Central and Eastern Europe to sign a currency swap agreement with China, and the first in Europe to join China’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Not only is Budapest connecting itself closer to the growth engine of Asia, but it is also setting itself up as a bridge between the East and West.

Hungary is also resisting further sanctions on Russia to maintain access to energy resources. Simply put, Eurasia is reviving globalisation.

A conservative path
Hungary’s Eurasian path is also consistent with its conservative aspirations. After decades of communism and the development of Marxist Man, Hungary naturally seeks to restore the role of national culture, the Church and traditional values in its national consciousness.

As new technologies and rampant market forces cause disruptions, it is necessary to balance change with continuity. Conservatism therefore anchors stability in the eternal as the focus on family, faith and traditions connect the past with the future, to prepare society for disruptions. 

Yet, liberalism in the collective West is not especially tolerant of conservative values. While the liberal nation-state was previously a vehicle for success, liberalism has begun decoupling itself from the nation-state over the past years. Liberal Man is rapidly liberating himself from his own past through multiculturalism, radical secularism, a departure from recognising the family as the main institution of a stable society, and an aversion to traditional values. 

In contrast, cooperation in a multipolar Eurasia does not entail exporting a political system or conformity around “values”. The various civilisations in the Eurasian house pursue economic and cultural connectivity, whilst preserving their respective cultural distinctiveness. As a conservative country, it paradoxically becomes easier for Hungary to preserve its European distinctiveness in the multipolar Eurasian format.

Hopefully, Hungary will show the way for the rest of Europe in terms of transitioning from the confrontational unipolar order to a cooperative multipolar format – as the western peninsula of Greater Eurasia.

2022/09/23

Petition against arms supply to Ukraine

We, the people of Europe, cannot remain indifferent:  #StopKillingDonbass


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Petition against arms supply to Ukraine

Dear leaders of European states and leading international organizations, including the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe!

We, the people of Europe, based on our civil and political rights guaranteed by international law and national legislation, appeal to you to stop supporting the incitement of hatred and enmity carried out by Ukraine and the spread of senseless bloodshed in the center of our continent, as well as its possible escalation into the world war.

Unfortunately, today, contrary to the fundamental principles set forth in Article 2 of the UN Charter, in particular, the principles of sovereign equality and the peaceful settlement of international disputes, our countries supply Ukraine with weapons that cause massive deaths and injuries of civilians in Donbass, including children. This process multiplies human suffering and sacrifice in the very heart of Europe, which does not allow us to remain indifferent observers. We share the pain of Donbass people, we deeply sympathize with their grief and categorically condemn the supply of weapons and ammunition, which is ultimately directed against the civilian population. Moreover, we believe that this practice increases the possibility of hostilities spreading to the entire continent and even the risk of third world war outbreak.

Obvious consequences of such a short-sighted militaristic policy are also the instability in the European security sphere, the incitement of hatred and enmity between peoples, severing cultural and mutually beneficial economic ties. All this has a direct correlation with a sharp decline in living standards in our countries today, in contradiction to Article 11 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, and tomorrow it can lead to catastrophic consequences for an already very fragile peace.

We urge you to remember the lessons of the most terrible in the history of mankind World War II and not to repeat these mistakes today. In this regard, we strongly urge the governments of European states and the heads of leading international organizations, including the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, to make a feasible contribution to stopping the targeted extermination of civilians in Donbass, including the killing of children, destruction of houses, schools and hospitals. We demand an end to (i) the financing of state terrorism and genocide against the people of Donbass, (ii) as well as the ongoing violations of the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and other acts of international humanitarian law since 2014.

 

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In keeping silent about evil, in burying it so deep within us that no sign of it appears on the surface, we are implanting it, and it will rise up a thousand fold in the future. When we neither punish nor reproach evildoers, we are not simply protecting their trivial old age, we are thereby ripping the foundations of justice from beneath new generations. 
(A.I. Solzhenitsyn, 1918 – 2008 ; The Gulag Archipelago, 1958-68) 
The simple act of an ordinary brave man is not to participate in lies, not to support false actions! His rule: let that come into the world, let it even reign supreme -- only not through me. But it is within the power of writers and artists to do much more: to defeat the lie! For in the struggle with lies art has always triumphed and shall always triumph! Visibly, irrefutably for all! Lies can prevail against much in this world, but never against art.
(A.I. Solzhenitsyn, 1918 – 2008 ; Nobel Prize acceptance speech, 1970)

 

2021/01/02

Etude scientifique majeure: les patients "asymptomatiques" ne transmettent pas la COVID-19


Une étude scientifique majeure a été publiée le 20/11/2020 dans la prestigieuse revue Nature Communications: Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China. (1) Notre article a pour objectif de résumer en français cette étude, au vu de l'importance de ses conclusions qui mettent en défaut la politique sanitaire dans les pays occidentaux. En effet, cette étude n'est semblable à aucune autre par le protocole utilisé : 87.4% de la population totale de Wuhan soit presque 10 millions de personnes ont été testées en 19 jours. Les résultats statistiques sont donc extrêmement significatifs.

En tant que foyer le plus gravement touché par la COVID-19 en Chine, Wuhan avait été confinée très sévèrement du 23 janvier au 8 avril 2020. Au cours des mois suivant, les autorités se sont toujours inquiétées du risque de reprise de la COVID-19.

Pour déterminer l’état actuel de l’épidémie, le gouvernement de l'agglomération de Wuhan a effectué un dépistage complet de l’infection par le SRAS-CoV-2 à l’échelle de l'agglomération du 14 mai 2020 au 1er juin 2020. Environ 50 000 professionnels de la santé (principalement des médecins et des infirmières des centres de santé communautaires) et plus de 280 000 travailleurs et bénévoles de la communauté ont contribué à la collecte d’échantillons, au transport d’équipements et d’échantillons recueillis, à l’organisation du processus de participation et au maintien de l’ordre des sites d’échantillonnage.

La campagne de tests PCR ciblait 10 652 513 personnes âgées de 6 ans et plus à Wuhan (94,1 % de la population totale). Le dépistage de l’acide nucléique a été effectué en 19 jours et a testé un total de 9 899 828 personnes sur les 10 652 513 personnes prévues (taux de participation, 92,9 %). Sur ces 9 899 828 participants, 9 865 404 n’avaient pas de diagnostic antérieur de COVID-19, et 34 424 patients étaient supposés guéris de la COVID-19. 

Les techniques de prélèvement, acheminement et d’analyse des tests ont suivi des recommandations nationales bien détaillées (1).

Le dépistage des 9 865 404 participants sans antécédents de COVID-19 n’a révélé aucun cas de malades COVID-19, c'est-à-dire avec des symptômes, et a identifié 300 cas positifs asymptomatiques. 1174 contacts étroits des cas positifs asymptomatiques ont été identifiés, tous testés négatifs pour la COVID-19.

34 424 cas de COVID-19 guéris ont participé au dépistage massif dont 107 ont de nouveau donné un résultat positif avec le test PCR, ce qui indique un taux de repositif de 0,31 % avec le test PCR. 

La proportion de cas asymptomatique positifs au test PCR qui se sont révélés négatifs lors des tests antigènes IgM (−) et IgG (−) était de 36,7 %, indiquant la possibilité de faux résultats positifs des tests d’acide nucléique. Information majeure: les cultures virales effectuées à la suite ont été négatives pour tous les cas asymptomatiques de tests PCR positifs et repositifs, n’indiquant aucun « virus viable » dans tous ces cas positifs détectés dans cette étude par le test PCR.

Tous les cas asymptomatiques positifs au test PCR, ainsi que les cas repositifs et leurs contacts étroits ont été isolés pendant au moins 2 semaines dans des lieux spécialisés jusqu’à ce que les résultats de 2 tests PCR consécutifs aient été négatifs. Aucun des cas positifs détectés par le test PCR ou leurs contacts étroits n’est devenu symptomatique.

Cette étude scientifique permet d'affirmer les conclusions suivantes:

  • une personne asymptomatique testée positive au test PCR n'est pas porteuse d'un virus SARS-cov-2 viable. Elle ne développe pas cette maladie, et ne transmet pas ce virus. 
  • après le premier confinement général, le reconfinement généralisé ou partiel, temporaire, intermitent (couvre-feu) ou de longue durée, géographiquement limité ou auto-confinement est inutile : seuls les malades, c'est-à-dire ceux qui développent des symptômes, doivent être isolés.  
  • les mesures de distanciation sociale et les gestes barrière suffisent pour protéger les personnes à risque (personnes immunodéprimées ou présentant des facteurs de comorbidité).
  • L'estimation intérêt/risques d'une campagne de vaccination massive doit être établie à nouveau à partir de ces nouvelles données. 

 

(1) : Cao, S., Gan, Y., Wang, C. et al. Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China. Nat Commun 11, 5917 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19802-w 

(2) : La méthode Real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) a été utilisée pour les tests d'acide nucléique. Le protocole indique que 2 cibles géniques ont été simultanément  amplifiées et testées: open reading frame 1ab (ORF1ab) et la protéine nucléocapside (N). Une valeur seuil du cycle (Ct-value) inférieure à 37 a été définie comme un résultat positif, et une absence de Ct-value ou une valeur de Ct-value supérieure ou égale à 40 ont été définies comme un résultat négatif. Pour les valeurs de Ct-values entre 37 to 40, l'échantillon a été retesté. Tous les échantillons positifs au test PCR ont bénéficié de tests antigéniques IgM et IgG réalisés dans des laboratoires de niveau 2 et leurs cultures virales  ont été effectués dans des laboratoires de niveau 3 de biosécurité.